EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP edged lower to 0.8226 last week but lost momentum ahead of 0.8221 low and turned sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But recovery should be limited by 0.8293 resistance and bring another fall. Decline from 0.8505 is treated as resumption of whole fall from 0.9083 and break of 0.8221 will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.8830 to 0.8221 from 0.8505 at 0.8129 next. However, above 0.8293 will dampen this bearish view and indicate that consolidation from 0.8221 might extend further with another rise before completion.

In the bigger picture, long term consolidation pattern from 0.9799 is still in progress with fall from 0.9083 as the third leg. Decline from 0.9083 is still in progress and would target 61.8% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8067 from 0.9083 at 0.8013 (which is close to 0.8 psychological level). After all, we'd expect strong support inside 0.7693/8186 support zone, possibly near to 61.8% retracement of 0.6535 to 0.9799 at 0.7782 to contain downside to finish off the consolidation. On the upside, break of 0.8505 resistance will argue that fall form 0.9083 is finished. In that case, EUR/GBP could have either started another leg inside the consolidation pattern, or resuming the larger up trend.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.