EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook
EUR/JPY attempted to draw support from 105.64 last week but the strength of recovery was weak. Instead, Friday's fall suggest that decline from 111.43 is still in progress and is set to resume this week. More importantly, 105.64 would likely be taken out decisively and there would be near term bearish implication. In any case, deeper fall would be in favor as long as 107.47 resistance holds and break of 105.44 will target 61.8% retracement of 97.03 to 111.43 at 102.53 next.
In the bigger picture, the rebound form 97.03 was disappointing as it failed to take out 111.57 resistance. Indeed, EUR/JPY also failed to sustain above 55 weeks EMA and is back under this level. While the down trend from 169.96 has been showing loss of downside momentum in bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, there is not enough evidence to warrant a reversal yet. We'd possibly a new low below 97.03 before EUR/JPY finally bottoms.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Current development argues that 97.093 is the bottom yet but reversal should be around the corner considering bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD.